Abductive Inference for Combat: Using SCARE-S2 to Find High-Value Targets in Afghanistan

نویسندگان

  • Paulo Shakarian
  • Mago Nagel
  • Brittany Schuetzle
  • V. S. Subrahmanian
چکیده

Recently, geospatial abduction was introduced by the authors in (Shakarian, Subrahmanian, and Sapino 2010) as a way to infer unobserved geographic phenomena from a set of known observations and constraints between the two. In this paper, we introduce the SCARES2 software tool which applies geospatial abduction to the environment of Afghanistan. Unlike previous work, where we looked for small weapon caches supporting local attacks, here we look for insurgent highvalue targets (HVT’s), supporting insurgent operations in two provinces. These HVT’s include the locations of insurgent leaders and major supply depots. Applying this method of inference to Afghanistan introduces several practical issues not addressed in previous work. Namely, we are conducting inference in a much larger area (24, 940 sq km as compared to 675 sq km in previous work), on more varied terrain, and must consider the influence of many local tribes. We address all of these problems and evaluate our software on 6 months of real-world counter-insurgency data. We show that we are able to abduce regions of a relatively small area (on average, under 100 sq km and each containing, on average, 4.8 villages) that are more dense with HVT’s (35× more than the overall area considered).

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

SCARE: The Spatio-Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine

In this paper we introduce SCARE the Spatio-Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine which implements an algorithm that solves spatial abduction problems (Shakarian, Subrahmanian, and Sapino 2009). We review results of SCARE for activities by Iranian-sponsored “Special Groups” (Kagan, Kagan, and Pletka 2008) operating throughout the Baghdad urban area and compare these findings with experiments wher...

متن کامل

SCARE: A Case Study with Baghdad

In this paper we introduce SCARE the Spatial Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine which solves spatial abduction problems (Shakarian, Subrahmanian, and Sapino 2009). We review results of SCARE for activities by Iranian-sponsored “Special Groups” (Kagan, Kagan, and Pletka 2008) operating throughout the Baghdad urban area and compare these findings with new experiments where we predict IED cache s...

متن کامل

Weapon scheduling in naval combat systems for maximization of defense capabilities

Air defense is a crucial area for all naval combat systems. In this study, we consider a warship equipped with an air-defense weapon that targets incoming threats using surface-to-air missiles. We define the weapon scheduling problem as the optimal scheduling of a set of surface-to-air missiles of a warship to a set of attacking air threats. The optimal scheduling of the weapon results in an in...

متن کامل

Abductive inference in Bayesian networks using distributed overlapping swarm intelligence

In this paper we propose several approximation algorithms for the problems of full and partial abductive inference in Bayesian belief networks. Full abductive inference is the problem of finding the k most probable state assignments to all non-evidence variables in the network while partial abductive inference is the problem of finding the k most probable state assignments for a subset of the n...

متن کامل

Evaluating Abductive Hypotheses using an EM Algorithm on BDDs

Abductive inference is an important AI reasoning technique to find explanations of observations, and has recently been applied to scientific discovery. To find best hypotheses among many logically possible hypotheses, we need to evaluate hypotheses obtained from the process of hypothesis generation. We propose an abductive inference architecture combined with an EM algorithm working on binary d...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011